Events in Iran Conform Market for Loyalties Theory

The impact of the information environment--Twitter, cell phone video, YouTube, Facebook--on the instability in Iran are predicted under Market for Loyalties Theory.

Under this neoclassical economic theory the information environment is a market where power holders attempt to monopolize the exchange of identity (goods) for loyalty (cash or currency) with citizens, subjects, consumers, etc. Loyalty is necessary to make basic societal functions operate --service in the military, payment of taxes, support for a political party or state, tolerance of government corruption, and even the willingness to stay in a country. Citizens seek back a sense of identity (including a hopeful and secure future and connection to the past).

In Iran's case, the market was loosened during the election, allowing a competitor for loyalty to surface. However, Twitter, Facebook, and other social networking tools challenge the ability of Iran's regime to shutdown that openness. It's a new market, and with another competitor, loyalty has plunged, creating massive instability.

Under economic theory the loss of control is greatest when the demand curve is most inelastic (i.e., some what oversimplified, when it is the steepest). The historical absence of competitors for loyalty in Iran means the curve is very steep and so the drop (with the appearance of a competitor) is hugely destabilizing.



For more background on Market for Loyalties theory, see Paul D. Callister, Identity and Market for Loyalties Theories: The Case for Free Information Flow in Insurgent Iraq, Saint Louis University Public Law Review 25.1 (2006): 123-153. Available at: http://works.bepress.com/paul_callister/3.

Call For Papers - Human Rights and The Military

Human Rights and the Military; A duty to protect? is an international conference organized by the Armed Forces Law Association of New Zealand in conjunction with the School of Law, University of Canterbury, New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand, 28 – 30 August 2009. The call for papers deadline is March 27, 2009. See posting on Legal Scholarship Blog.

Under U.S. Eye, Iraqis Blend Intelligence With Rule of Law

Iraq's intelligence community is gradually making the transition to a crime-fighting organization similar to the FBI. The issue is complicated by counter-insurgency which sometimes blurs the line between criminal and traditional-security intelligence. See news report.

Similar issues face all countries. The shift in U.S. administrations has de-emphasized the "war on terror" and focused on the criminal aspects of terrorism.

GAO Report on Programs to Reform Afghan Police & Security

On March 9, 2009, the U.S. Government Accountability Office issued a report entitled, Afghanistan Security: U.S. Programs to Further Reform Ministry of Interior and National Police Challenged by Lack of Military Personnel and Afghan Cooperation (download).

Among the problems cited are the degree of corruption and illiteracy in Afghanistan, which is measured on one index as being the fifth most corrupt in the world (see p. 2). The report recommends cooperation between the Secretaries of State and Defense to send police training teams to Afghanistan. The report also notes the problems with regional efforts--such as the lack of military personnel and lack of data about whether background checks are being done.

Asia's No-Law Zones Plunge Into Anarchy

Recent events in South Asia (see click here for the news headline story) portend the destabilization and failure of rule of law in the region.

These events are a reminder that the rule of law functions not only functions to check oppressive regimes and tyranny, some of whom may even use law as an instrument to maintain power, but it counters the forces leading to anarchy. Essentially there are three basic states of affairs: rule of will, rule of the mob, and rule of law. See the illustration below.

While many institutions and blogs are dedicated to rule of law in the face of authoritarian regimes, this blog emphasizes the rule of law's relationship to stability. The problem is often the failure of the state, and how rule of law can be re-reestablished.

Increasingly, failed states and states in danger of failure must be the focus for government agencies and the military. It's not China, but western Pakistan that is the threat.

IBA Report on Rule of Law in Fiji

A report issued by the International Bar Association on the state of rule of law in Fiji is "quite damning." Furthermore, Commonwealth, an organization of 53 states established in 1965, has issued a warning that it will spend Fiji if significant progress toward the rule of law is not made. http://www.thecommonwealth.org/news/188105/040309cmagstatement.htm.

China Issues White Paper on Rule of Law

One year ago, China issued an important document on the rule of law. See http://www.china.org.cn/government/news/2008-02/28/content_11025486.htm for text. The document addresses human rights, but emphasizes "subsistence", economic, social and cultural rights. In the discussion of the right to life, the document states that it "upholds a policy of 'killing fewer and with caution.'" Political rights, religion, and equality are also covered. Reading the document should be tempered with the understanding, as one Chinese constitutional scholar put it, that the "right to security" remains the supreme interest.

China's commitment to the Rule of Law has been debated, especially with reference to its human rights records surrounding the Olympics and a recent crackdown on human rights lawyers. See http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0225/p01s01-woap.html.

However, Chinese legal scholars have been writing about the subject for about 20 years. As a colleague once informed me, "we can talk about rule of law all we want, but we can't talk about human rights and democracy." Little wonder there is such a focus by legal scholars on the subject--it is the outlet for hope of a better life.

The party has adopted it, it least on paper. Why? Probably to curb the abuses of the cultural revolution, which among other things destroyed China's legal institutions. There may be a sincere desire by some for a check on power, and as Randall Peerenboom notes in his seminal work, China's Long March toward the Rule of Law (Cambridge, 2002), rule of law is seen as a pathway to legitimacy. China's version of the rule of law may look very different from that of the West, and Peerenboom explores models for the rule of law without western democracy or style of human rights.

In the end, the question is inescapable for China, is it possible to have one's cake and eat it too-rule of law as a meaning full check on power without democracy or some form of human rights?